Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6081…d3ca crypto 9 markets active 5d ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-9%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$14
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$12
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-63.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -53.1% -57.6% 40% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 9 -59.5% -63.3% 33% 11% -18.1%
≤90d 9 -59.5% -63.3% 33% 11% -18.1%
all 9 -59.5% -63.3% 33% 11% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.3% 11% -18.1%
10% -66.8% 11% -25.9%
15% -70.0% 0% -33.1%
20% -73.0% 0% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage11d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records