Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
60 0x6081…a770 other 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 645d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$92 (-0%) realized −$90 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate59%78W / 54L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$583per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days−$187
14 days−$187
30 days−$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$124
other 28% −$22
sports 10% −$55
crypto 1% −$63
world 0% +$2
economics 0% +$4
weather 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 17% -10.3%
≤30d 21 -20.4% -28.0% 24% 14% -10.1%
≤90d 28 -16.1% -24.1% 36% 18% -10.0%
all 132 -1.5% -10.9% 59% 30% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 30% -9.8%
10% -19.4% 25% -18.5%
15% -27.2% 20% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 17% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

645d coverage
Net worth$1,462
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses78 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage645d
Avg bet$583
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,295 $1,294 −$1 (-0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 92¢ 91¢ $169 $168 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $12,791 −$94 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $174 +$17 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $241 −$35 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,654 −$4 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$6 +20%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $15 +$10 +70%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,810 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,261 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,905 −$9 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Lukas Neumayer May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Mayar Sherif vs Greet Minnen May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 21 $15 −$15 -100%
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5 May 21 $11 −$5 -41%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $4,511 −$2 -0%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu May 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Angers SCO: O/U 1.5 May 19 $14 +$4 +29%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $5,505 −$3 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $12,003 −$8 -0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Wild vs. Stars May 15 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? May 15 $83 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 08 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 08 $16 +$16 +97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 08 $83 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Mar 13 $5 $0 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Mar 13 $11 $0 +1%
Pistons vs. Trail Blazers Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Capitals vs. Red Wings Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Senators vs. Bruins Feb 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Feb 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Feb 18 $1 +$1 +117%
Bulls vs. Hawks Feb 18 $1 +$2 +156%
Lighter Airdrop on December 21? Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Feb 18 $2 +$2 +92%
Chiefs vs. Titans Feb 18 $2 +$2 +138%
Raptors vs. Nets Feb 18 $2 +$3 +144%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Feb 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Feb 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Feb 18 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $41 23m
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $9 51m
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $592 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $21 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $526 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $1,402 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $1,278 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $151 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $2,555 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $11 3h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $9 3h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $2 3h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $2 3h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $11 3h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $730 3h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $6 4h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $9 4h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $1 5h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $9 5h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,462.14 · official $1,462.14 (match) · 514 history records