Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
60 0x607f…eb10 crypto 30 markets active 5d ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$99 (+6%) realized +$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$105
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$86
tech 9% +$52
sports 4% −$71
finance 2% +$20
culture 0% −$7
weather 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -10.4% -18.9% 75% 50% -7.9%
≤30d 14 +13.1% +2.4% 86% 64% -0.1%
≤90d 14 +13.1% +2.4% 86% 64% -0.1%
all 28 -21.4% -28.9% 61% 36% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 36% -5.4%
10% -35.7% 21% -14.4%
15% -41.9% 11% -22.7%
20% -47.6% 7% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage121d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $135 +$18 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $37 −$32 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $407 +$67 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $64 +$6 +9%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $58 −$57 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 06 $14 +$16 +114%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 9 above $195? Jun 06 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 06 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Wix.com (WIX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 06 $29 +$20 +70%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 06 $152 +$48 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 17 $94 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 13 $87 +$4 +5%
Will Body by Don Toliver be the Billboard #1 song for the week of Febr Feb 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 11 $195 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 11 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 11 $96 +$12 +12%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026? Feb 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 11 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $37 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.42 · official $3.45 (match) · 144 history records