Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x607d…d2f4 other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%34W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$88
14 days−$15
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$53
crypto 23% −$118
finance 14% +$43
sports 6% +$75
tech 2% +$13
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +23.4% +11.6% 64% 64% +0.7%
≤30d 67 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 45% -11.1%
≤90d 67 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 45% -11.1%
all 67 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 45% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 45% -11.1%
10% -21.0% 43% -19.6%
15% -28.7% 37% -27.4%
20% -35.7% 27% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses34 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)67 / 78
History coverage15d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$11 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 +$33 +73%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$11 +127%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$19 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$18 -71%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 18 $26 −$17 -65%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Jun 18 $26 −$9 -35%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $101 +$34 +33%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 +$16 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$14 +262%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$14 -70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$27 +105%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $23 +$27 +116%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $10 −$9 -88%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $27 −$26 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$4 -15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $102 +$15 +14%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $35 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $252 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 15h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 28h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $467.74 · official $467.74 (match) · 166 history records