Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x607c…8e7e weather 414 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (424 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$2,157 (+106%) realized +$2,178 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +164% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +103% what you keep after slip
Net edge+103%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%365W / 420L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day423.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$157
14 days+$253
30 days+$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (424 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+138.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 725 +170.0% +144.3% 46% 42% -9.3%
≤30d 785 +163.5% +138.4% 46% 42% -6.0%
≤90d 785 +163.5% +138.4% 46% 42% -6.0%
all 785 +163.5% +138.4% 46% 42% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover423.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +138.4% 42% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here +115.6% 37% -15.0%
15% +94.8% 32% -23.2%
20% +75.7% 29% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +163% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +288% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized+$2,178
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses365 / 420
Open positions18
Markets (closed)785 / 414
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day423.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 785 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+167%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 473 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 71°F or below on May 17? Jun 17 $6 +$174 +2788%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 17? Jun 17 $1 +$90 +9833%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 18? Jun 17 $2 +$7 +335%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 26? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +263%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 14? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 2? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 18? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +606%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 4? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 5? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 31? Jun 17 $0 +$5 +2210%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 30? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +2765%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on April 29? Jun 17 $0 +$8 +6750%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 28? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1149%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 26? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +1582%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 22? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +848%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 5? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +871%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 17? Jun 17 $0 +$6 +7811%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 31? Jun 17 $0 +$7 +3787%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 25? Jun 17 $0 +$8 +13310%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 29? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +426%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on May 8? Jun 17 $0 $0 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 3? Jun 17 $0 +$4 +8286%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on April 25? Jun 17 $0 +$4 +24446%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 9? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +1037%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 31? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +2755%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on April Jun 17 $0 +$2 +983%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 29? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +747%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on May 4 Jun 17 $0 +$2 +1461%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on May 26? Jun 17 $0 +$4 +5338%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 26? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +614%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 +204%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 4? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +703%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 1? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +458%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 6? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +430%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 8? Jun 17 $0 $0 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 16? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +354%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 56°F or higher on April 29? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +438%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 31? Jun 17 $0 $0 +354%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 23? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +533%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 16? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +644%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on April 26? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +2137%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 28? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1134%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 11? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +410%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 12? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +4073%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on May 7? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +1481%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 27? Jun 17 $0 $0 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 29? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +1533%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 0m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 5m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 SELL Yes 6¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 SELL Yes 6¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 SELL Yes 6¢ $0 41m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 42¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.15 · official $306.59 · 3500 history records