Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x607b…5c07 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$22 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate34%18W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$14
sports 8% −$11
world 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 53 -6.6% -15.5% 34% 6% -9.9%
all 53 -6.6% -15.5% 34% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 6% -9.9%
10% -23.6% 2% -18.5%
15% -31.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses18 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage86d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $248 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $120 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $241 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $262 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $120 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $249 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $121 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $121 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $377 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $121 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $263 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $128 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $6 −$2 -32%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 10 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $139 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $139 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $140 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $130 $0 -0%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 06 $9 $0 +3%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $140 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $140 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $284 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $142 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $142 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $142 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $149 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $135 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 29 $12 +$3 +23%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $135 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $135 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $133 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 25 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $133 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $36 +$5 +14%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $34 +$2 +5%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Apr 11 $32 +$2 +7%
Bucks vs. Pistons Apr 09 $29 +$3 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $26 +$3 +10%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $25 +$2 +6%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 05 $24 +$1 +5%
Jazz vs. Rockets Apr 04 $22 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $21 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $120 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $120 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $105 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $105 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $106 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $106 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $120 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $120 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $120 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $120 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $120 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $120 14d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $120 14d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $120 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $120 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $120 20d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $120 20d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $120 21d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $120 21d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $120 23d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $120 23d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $120 24d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $121 24d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $121 26d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $121 26d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $121 29d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $121 29d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $121 31d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $121 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.45 · official $6.45 (match) · 176 history records