Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6079…b251 crypto 30 markets active 13h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,872 (-50%) realized −$8,654 · open −$218
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%3W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$593per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4,148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2,006
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$9,988
other 30% +$1,120
economics 1% −$158
world 1% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -99.4% -99.4% 0% 0% -98.7%
≤90d 16 -62.5% -66.0% 12% 12% -76.8%
all 27 -23.2% -30.5% 11% 11% -70.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 11% -70.0%
10% -37.2% 11% -72.9%
15% -43.2% 11% -75.5%
20% -48.8% 7% -77.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$686) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +21% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
26.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$981 vs −$487 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$4,148
Realized−$8,654
Unrealized−$218
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage572d
Avg bet$593
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1,400 $1,550 +$150 (+11%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,000 $1,500 −$500 (-25%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $967 $1,098 +$132 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $543 −$509 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $271 −$256 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $80 −$76 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $1,195 −$1,166 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 8? May 09 $657 −$600 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 1? May 01 $896 −$866 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $778 −$734 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $35 −$33 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $450 −$422 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $1,114 −$1,054 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $64 −$62 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 31? Apr 12 $652 −$633 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 12 $129 +$59 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $417 +$1,052 +252%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12? Apr 11 $478 −$27 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $1,084 −$1,079 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $659 −$657 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 1? Feb 28 $686 −$686 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Feb 28 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 28? Feb 28 $1,787 −$1,786 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? Feb 28 $339 −$339 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $120 −$120 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Ripple above $2.35 on February 14? Feb 14 $92 −$85 -93%
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get 125m or more views on day 1? Dec 03 $211 −$120 -57%
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video between 100m-125m views on day 1? Dec 03 $336 −$288 -86%
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get less than 50m views on day 1? Dec 01 $140 +$1,831 +1308%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $995 13h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,441 13h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2,060 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $66 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $229 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $177 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 11¢ $37 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 12¢ $135 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,148.38 · official $4,148.38 (match) · 910 history records