Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
60 0x6075…2f82 sports 207 markets active 20h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,646 (+8%) realized +$1,646 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%81W / 126L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$350est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$116
14 days+$324
30 days+$1,277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$979
other 1% −$106
crypto 0% −$84
world 0% −$13
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +15.9% +4.9% 47% 47% -17.4%
≤30d 177 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 38% -5.3%
≤90d 207 -5.2% -14.2% 39% 38% -8.2%
all 207 -5.2% -14.2% 39% 38% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 38% -8.2%
10% -22.5% 37% -17.0%
15% -29.9% 35% -25.0%
20% -36.8% 27% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$68 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,646
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses81 / 126
Est. fees paid−$350
Open positions0
Markets (closed)207 / 207
History coverage80d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 207 Trades
no open positions (116 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $73 +$21 +29%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $73 −$4 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $73 +$38 +52%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $101 −$21 -20%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $74 +$33 +44%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $37 +$52 +140%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $34 +$123 +365%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $73 +$60 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $73 +$83 +114%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $72 −$71 -99%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $101 −$27 -26%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $218 −$215 -98%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $75 +$72 +95%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $189 −$185 -98%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 09 $222 +$67 +30%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Ella McDonald Jun 09 $100 −$99 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $69 −$68 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $74 −$4 -6%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $146 +$160 +109%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $101 +$77 +76%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $90 +$91 +101%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $116 −$115 -99%
Lyon: Laslo Djere vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 08 $99 −$43 -43%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $199 −$23 -12%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maddison Inglis Jun 07 $203 +$148 +73%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Storm Hunter Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $49 +$99 +202%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $73 −$72 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Hanyu Guo Jun 07 $209 −$107 -51%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 07 $99 +$31 +31%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Yuriko Miyazaki Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $101 +$49 +49%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $98 −$97 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $49 −$48 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $283 +$175 +62%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 06 $302 +$188 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $257 +$35 +14%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $13 −$13 -98%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $74 +$66 +90%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $15 +$24 +158%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $76 −$75 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $102 +$161 +158%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $38 −$37 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $303 +$204 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 75¢ $94 19h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 57¢ $73 21h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 65¢ $69 29h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ $101 30h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $102 31h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 57¢ $80 32h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 70¢ $101 32h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $106 32h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $74 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $37 33h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 41¢ $37 34h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $73 35h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $73 35h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $34 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 54¢ $73 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 46¢ $73 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 59¢ $29 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 59¢ $43 5d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic SELL Donna Vekic 47¢ $75 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $218 6d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 62¢ $101 6d
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 52¢ $38 6d
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 49¢ $38 6d
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi BUY Hamish Stewart 30¢ $26 6d
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 39¢ $99 7d
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 37¢ $90 7d
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally SELL Caty McNally 69¢ $288 7d
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 52¢ $222 7d
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Ella McDonald BUY Ella McDonald 78¢ $100 7d
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Tom Gentzsch 57¢ $69 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 387 history records