trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +5.6% | -4.5% | 60% | 40% | -6.9% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 31% | 12% | -8.9% |
| all | 28 | +4.2% | -5.7% | 54% | 14% | -8.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.7% | 14% | -8.2% |
| 10% | -14.7% | 7% | -17.0% |
| 15% | -23.0% | 4% | -25.0% |
| 20% | -30.5% | 4% | -32.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | No | 90¢ | 88¢ | $38 | $37 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 24 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 26 | $29 | +$3 | +11% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 26 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | May 25 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 25 | $7 | +$1 | +17% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 25 | $35 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | May 23 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 22 | $38 | +$1 | +3% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 21 | $35 | $0 | -1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 21 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 21 | $35 | −$1 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 20 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 19 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 19 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 07 | $2 | +$1 | +59% |
| Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 06 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? | Apr 05 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | Apr 05 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 20 | Apr 04 | $16 | +$4 | +24% |
| Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? | Mar 02 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F | Mar 02 | $17 | $0 | -2% |