Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:05:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
60 0x6075…ce34 world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$2
other 13% +$1
finance 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
politics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
weather 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +5.6% -4.5% 60% 40% -6.9%
≤90d 16 +1.5% -8.2% 31% 12% -8.9%
all 28 +4.2% -5.7% 54% 14% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 14% -8.2%
10% -14.7% 7% -17.0%
15% -23.0% 4% -25.0%
20% -30.5% 4% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage481d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 90¢ 88¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $29 +$3 +11%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $7 +$1 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 22 $38 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $35 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $35 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 20 Apr 04 $16 +$4 +24%
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 02 $17 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 19h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $32 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $29 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $38 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $38 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $35 30d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 31d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 31d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 31d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 31d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $25 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $13 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $38 33d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 33d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $18 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $20 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.96 · official $36.96 (match) · 77 history records