Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:32:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6071…e933 politics 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$973 (-9%) realized −$1,055 · open +$82
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%48W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$73
14 days+$327
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$1,471
other 18% +$161
economics 3% +$42
finance 2% −$62
world 1% +$7
crypto 1% +$26
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +5.8% -4.3% 52% 38% -12.8%
≤30d 65 +3.9% -6.0% 43% 34% +0.1%
≤90d 125 -1.8% -11.2% 38% 32% -21.0%
all 125 -1.8% -11.2% 38% 32% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 32% -21.0%
10% -19.7% 26% -28.5%
15% -27.4% 22% -35.4%
20% -34.6% 13% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$34 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$531
Realized−$1,055
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses48 / 77
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)125 / 137
History coverage70d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $115 −$112 -98%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $84 −$12 -15%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 18 $20 −$4 -18%
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 18 $12 −$9 -78%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $18 −$3 -16%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 18 $117 +$16 +14%
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? Jun 17 $71 −$40 -56%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 17 $45 +$62 +139%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 17 $4 +$6 +164%
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele Jun 17 $13 −$8 -63%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $125 −$40 -32%
Will Kai Havertz score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $134 +$53 +40%
Will Florian Wirtz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $125 +$6 +4%
Will Ecuador (23) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 14 $0 $0 +32%
Will Senegal (15) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 14 $2 +$1 +69%
Will IR Iran (20) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 14 $6 +$9 +156%
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $149 +$4 +3%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Alex Freeman be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $27 +$146 +541%
Will Crysencio Summerville be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 12 $41 +$20 +48%
Will Rayan Cherki be in France's Starting 11? Jun 12 $22 +$7 +33%
Will Yuito Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 12 $67 +$55 +81%
Will Ritsu Doan be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 12 $32 +$102 +316%
Will Alphonso Davies score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $17 −$2 -9%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $11 +$4 +36%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 10 $25 +$8 +33%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 10 $43 +$20 +47%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $319 +$51 +16%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 09 $5 −$2 -33%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 08 $14 −$10 -70%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 05 $56 −$20 -36%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 03 $115 +$3 +3%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 03 $54 −$3 -5%
Will Steve Hilton win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election? Jun 03 $0 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 -4%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 01 $8 $0 +5%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $87 −$76 -87%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 3rd in the 1st round of the 2026 C May 31 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C May 31 $23 −$4 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 17¢ $12 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 39¢ $68 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 16¢ $103 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 38¢ $207 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 35¢ $4 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 35¢ $9 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 35¢ $9 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 35¢ $3 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 35¢ $7 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 37¢ $19 3h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 36¢ $4 3h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 38¢ $9 3h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 39¢ $3 3h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 39¢ $26 3h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 29¢ $21 3h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 22¢ $23 3h
Will Austria concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Scotland concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $72 11h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 18¢ $35 11h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $84 11h
Will Saudi Arabia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes $0 11h
Will Scotland concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes $0 14h
Will Scotland concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes $0 14h
Will Scotland concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes $0 14h
Will Saudi Arabia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes $0 14h
Will Paraguay concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes $0 14h
Will Paraguay concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes $1 14h
Will New Zealand concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes $1 14h
Will New Zealand concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $531.16 · official $531.16 (match) · 1151 history records