Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x606f…1083 world 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,590 (+1%) realized +$13,839 · open −$7,249
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate59%76W / 52L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,408per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$158est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$52,626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$17,413
sports 10% +$2,893
politics 10% +$1,008
finance 9% +$3,222
other 3% +$822
crypto 0% +$1,943
culture 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -24.0% -31.3% 33% 19% -14.6%
≤30d 97 -10.6% -19.1% 54% 30% -10.3%
≤90d 124 -9.5% -18.1% 58% 29% -9.6%
all 128 -9.0% -17.7% 59% 28% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 28% -9.6%
10% -25.6% 10% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -32.8% 8% -26.1%
20% -39.3% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$4,023) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$393 vs −$604 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$52,626
Realized+$13,839
Unrealized−$7,249
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses76 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$158
Open positions22
Markets (closed)128 / 150
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$4,408
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 86¢ 48¢ $19,265 $10,623 −$8,642 (-45%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $7,906 $8,462 +$556 (+7%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 79¢ 96¢ $4,937 $5,949 +$1,012 (+20%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $4,100 $4,475 +$375 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $3,387 $3,479 +$92 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 46¢ 55¢ $2,840 $3,344 +$504 (+18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 97¢ $1,460 $1,939 +$479 (+33%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $1,809 $1,915 +$106 (+6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $1,680 $1,758 +$78 (+5%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 71¢ 78¢ $1,516 $1,665 +$149 (+10%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 72¢ 86¢ $1,080 $1,282 +$202 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $1,129 $1,238 +$108 (+10%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 80¢ 99¢ $795 $994 +$199 (+25%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $457 $906 +$449 (+98%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $857 $905 +$48 (+6%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $840 $875 +$35 (+4%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 8¢ $4,265 $737 −$3,528 (-83%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 78¢ 86¢ $624 $692 +$68 (+11%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 15¢ $276 $687 +$412 (+149%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 76¢ 81¢ $380 $405 +$25 (+7%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $178 $186 +$9 (+5%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $93 $108 +$15 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $1,554 −$26 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $930 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $14,940 +$60 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $11,781 −$1,205 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $675 −$359 -53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $412 −$375 -91%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $1,108 −$185 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $706 −$418 -59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2,100 −$1,800 -86%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $19,890 +$50 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,380 +$811 +59%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,092 +$182 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $1,020 −$780 -76%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,410 −$1,406 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,098 −$1,096 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $2,989 +$446 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $98 −$88 -90%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 14 $1,784 −$117 -7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $4,372 −$3,276 -75%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $2,964 −$169 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $775 +$86 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $4,681 +$277 +6%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $58,500 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $98 −$38 -39%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $434 −$370 -85%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $2,490 −$540 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 10 $450 −$290 -64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1,262 −$16 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1,054 +$1,943 +184%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 10 $189 −$189 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? Jun 10 $157 −$157 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $326 −$26 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $7 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $1,500 +$570 +38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $684 +$95 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $3,290 +$2,550 +78%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $4,406 +$2,875 +65%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2,411 −$956 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $2,118 −$719 -34%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $1,104 +$47 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $790 −$340 -43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $4,994 +$674 +14%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 06 $4 +$3 +82%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $258 +$2 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $1,220 +$484 +40%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 02 $1,421 +$64 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $1,620 +$210 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $28,791 −$254 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $1,102 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $196 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $377 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $4,345 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $522 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 39¢ $390 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $352 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $347 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $866 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $880 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $898 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $864 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $877 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,800 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,528 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $37 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $931 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 51¢ $23 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 52¢ $647 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 52¢ $421 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 50¢ $341 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $163 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $394 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52,625.67 · official $52,625.67 (match) · 3500 history records