Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x606f…b043 other 1230 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,025 (+3%) realized +$8,610 · open +$415
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%672W / 529L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$2,142est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$10,678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,672
7 days−$2,025
14 days−$1,065
30 days+$868
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$10,825
sports 47% −$4,485
world 1% +$1,072
crypto 0% +$521
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +12.5% +1.8% 53% 49% -13.0%
≤30d 338 +7.1% -3.1% 55% 53% -8.8%
≤90d 1201 +5.5% -4.6% 56% 55% -7.5%
all 1201 +5.5% -4.6% 56% 55% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 55% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 52% -16.3%
15% -22.0% 46% -24.4%
20% -29.7% 38% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$240 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$10,678
Realized+$8,610
Unrealized+$415
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses672 / 529
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$2,142
Open positions29
Markets (closed)1201 / 1230
History coverage72d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 1201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $924 $930 +$6 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 74¢ $696 $882 +$186 (+27%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $852 $858 +$6 (+1%)
Ghana leading at halftime? No 69¢ 100¢ $552 $800 +$248 (+45%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $588 $606 +$18 (+3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 54¢ $360 $518 +$158 (+44%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $394 $469 +$75 (+19%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 94¢ $418 $449 +$31 (+7%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $312 $444 +$132 (+42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $429 $443 +$14 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $298 $439 +$142 (+48%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $442 $426 −$16 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $418 $406 −$12 (-3%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $288 $360 +$72 (+25%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $408 $343 −$65 (-16%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 70¢ $322 $338 +$17 (+5%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $379 $334 −$46 (-12%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $301 $307 +$6 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $197 $252 +$55 (+28%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $221 $194 −$26 (-12%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $190 $192 +$2 (+1%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $154 $146 −$7 (-5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 30¢ $283 $146 −$137 (-48%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $158 $132 −$26 (-17%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 26¢ $139 $127 −$12 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $664 +$136 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $585 +$615 +105%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $336 +$464 +138%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $597 +$603 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $512 +$209 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $206 +$242 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $525 −$516 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $396 −$396 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $281 −$281 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $217 −$217 -100%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $384 −$384 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $516 −$516 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $368 −$368 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,001 −$996 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $567 +$142 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,269 −$69 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,200 $0 +0%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $212 +$212 +100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $447 −$447 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $930 −$930 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $576 +$624 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $978 +$222 +23%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $480 +$320 +67%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $347 +$122 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $456 +$744 +163%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $416 +$384 +92%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,152 +$48 +4%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 16 $680 −$680 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,197 +$3 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 +$1,089 +982%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $201 +$599 +297%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $804 +$396 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $564 +$636 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $288 +$912 +317%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,140 +$60 +5%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $602 −$602 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,051 −$1,051 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $731 −$731 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $806 −$806 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $731 −$731 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,037 −$1,037 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,046 −$1,046 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,159 +$281 +24%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $530 +$116 +22%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 15 $672 +$261 +39%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $739 +$221 +30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,074 +$366 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY No 69¢ $557 58m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $859 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $430 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $597 2h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 83¢ $664 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $585 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $19 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $85 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $18 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $7 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $37 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $525 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $1,001 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $24 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $85 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $26 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $17 12h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $136 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $11 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $11 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $72 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $22 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $56 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $22 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $34 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $141 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,678.00 · official $10,678.05 (match) · 3255 history records