Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
60 0x606e…6b3a world 378 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,298 (+3%) realized +$4,452 · open +$846
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate70%245W / 103L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$449per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$9,445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$1,697
14 days+$1,460
30 days+$3,173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% +$4,292
other 6% +$428
politics 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$44
finance 1% −$20
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +3.9% -6.0% 71% 29% -4.4%
≤30d 99 +5.3% -4.7% 69% 25% -5.6%
≤90d 222 +5.7% -4.4% 73% 26% -6.3%
all 348 +0.0% -9.5% 70% 23% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 23% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 13% -16.1%
15% -26.1% 8% -24.2%
20% -33.3% 5% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$61 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$9,445
Realized+$4,452
Unrealized+$846
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses245 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions29
Markets (closed)348 / 378
History coverage157d
Avg bet$449
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,899 $1,989 +$90 (+5%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 69¢ $1,442 $1,748 +$306 (+21%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 93¢ $1,109 $1,324 +$215 (+19%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 78¢ 86¢ $848 $943 +$95 (+11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $939 $936 −$2 (-0%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 74¢ 84¢ $481 $549 +$68 (+14%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? No 85¢ 84¢ $315 $310 −$5 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $294 $297 +$3 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $269 $264 −$6 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $176 $196 +$20 (+11%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 78¢ 82¢ $156 $165 +$9 (+6%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $101 $97 −$3 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 70¢ 88¢ $74 $93 +$19 (+26%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 92¢ $77 $92 +$15 (+19%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 81¢ 86¢ $81 $86 +$5 (+6%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 64¢ 72¢ $57 $65 +$8 (+14%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 88¢ 98¢ $57 $64 +$6 (+11%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+1%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No 83¢ 84¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 73¢ 73¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 48¢ $18 $29 +$11 (+64%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 78¢ 90¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+17%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+24%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $181 +$22 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +101%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $318 −$15 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 18 $1,863 +$29 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $326 +$26 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,819 +$134 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $658 −$88 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $359 −$6 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +56%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $6,274 +$236 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $2,794 −$392 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $928 +$273 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $45 +$14 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,124 −$222 -20%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 14 $75 −$17 -23%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $502 +$51 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $355 −$231 -65%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 14 $16 +$3 +22%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $56 +$18 +32%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 14 $189 +$1 +1%
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? Jun 14 $52 −$39 -75%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 14 $1,698 +$58 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Jun 14 $1,728 +$174 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $365 +$17 +4%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Jun 14 $5,443 +$1,393 +26%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $18 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $612 +$47 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 13 $766 +$16 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $902 +$47 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $311 +$166 +53%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +8%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $71 +$6 +8%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 12 $257 −$39 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $97 +$10 +10%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 11 $84 −$6 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $276 +$32 +12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $54 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $336 +$100 +30%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $1,512 +$126 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $422 −$105 -25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $39 +$19 +48%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -46%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $877 −$19 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $77 +$28 +37%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $204 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $30 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $56 9h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $21 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $7 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $11 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $152 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $30 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $23 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $109 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $195 17h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $51 21h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $22 21h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $103 21h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $16 21h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 22h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $31 28h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 45h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $13 45h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 45h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 70¢ $140 45h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $73 45h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $36 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $66 46h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $98 47h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 47h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $261 47h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $234 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,445.35 · official $9,445.60 (match) · 3393 history records