Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x606e…cbd3 other 16 markets active 6h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-62%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$7
sports 32% −$4
world 11% −$2
crypto 10% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-68.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -65.3% -68.6% 19% 19% -64.5%
≤30d 16 -65.3% -68.6% 19% 19% -64.5%
≤90d 16 -65.3% -68.6% 19% 19% -64.5%
all 16 -65.3% -68.6% 19% 19% -64.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.6% 19% -64.5%
10% -71.6% 19% -67.9%
15% -74.4% 19% -71.0%
20% -76.9% 19% -73.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $2 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $2 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $1 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY No 38¢ $1 33h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records