Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
60 0x606d…1aaf crypto 847 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 126d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$111,993 (+10%) realized +$108,797 · open +$3,196
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate71%578W / 238L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,299per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$1,676est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$100,985now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 127d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$21,692
sports 36% +$20,368
other 14% −$15,599
politics 2% +$1,447
tech 1% +$899
culture 0% +$396
finance 0% −$201
world 0% +$414
weather 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -13.5% -21.7% 62% 50% -16.0%
≤30d 68 -16.7% -24.6% 56% 44% -2.7%
≤90d 520 +9.7% -0.7% 69% 53% -8.8%
all 816 +12.1% +1.4% 71% 55% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 55% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 45% -16.0%
15% -17.2% 36% -24.1%
20% -25.3% 26% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$720) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$279 vs −$567 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$100,985
Realized+$108,797
Unrealized+$3,196
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses578 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$1,676
Open positions32
Markets (closed)816 / 847
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$1,299
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 816 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 52¢ 57¢ $15,213 $16,782 +$1,569 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 82¢ $10,922 $11,196 +$274 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $8,158 $9,438 +$1,280 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $7,620 $7,998 +$378 (+5%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $7,846 $7,686 −$160 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $7,800 $6,698 −$1,102 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $3,276 $4,728 +$1,452 (+44%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4,924 $4,570 −$354 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $3,590 $4,560 +$970 (+27%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $4,296 $4,305 +$9 (+0%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $3,381 $3,401 +$20 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $4,340 $3,328 −$1,011 (-23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $2,733 $2,830 +$97 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2,150 $2,336 +$186 (+9%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $1,926 $1,975 +$49 (+3%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $1,849 $1,971 +$122 (+7%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $2,200 $1,827 −$373 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,610 $1,676 +$66 (+4%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $1,805 $1,657 −$149 (-8%)
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 65¢ $857 $746 −$111 (-13%)
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? No 96¢ 91¢ $545 $517 −$28 (-5%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $250 $265 +$15 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $122 +$36 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $749 +$107 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $515 +$170 +33%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,329 +$227 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22,570 +$2,060 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$21 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,008 −$3,008 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $12,965 +$11,570 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,526 −$3,526 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,621 −$3,621 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $6,708 −$6,708 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $405 −$405 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $501 +$48 +10%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$85 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$37 +36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $1,243 −$139 -11%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $201 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$63 +61%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 11 $102 +$39 +38%
Will Robert Lewandowski score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,387 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 02 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 02 $1,108 −$40 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $515 +$229 +45%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 02 $116 +$32 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 02 $165 +$131 +80%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $302 +$21 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 02 $303 +$50 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $15,897 +$243 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 31 $11 +$2 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 31 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $13,835 −$983 -7%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $15,518 +$37,303 +240%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $122 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $175 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $356 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $142 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $409 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $207 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $31 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $3,396 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $8,805 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $954 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $611 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,753 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100,984.51 · official $100,984.51 (match) · 3500 history records