Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x606d…45b5 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (305 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$32 (-5%) realized −$25 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day305.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (305 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -15.7% -23.7% 50% 44% -30.6%
≤30d 16 -15.7% -23.7% 50% 44% -30.6%
≤90d 16 -15.7% -23.7% 50% 44% -30.6%
all 16 -15.7% -23.7% 50% 44% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover305.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 44% -30.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 19% -37.2%
15% -37.7% 6% -43.3%
20% -43.8% 6% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$24 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day305.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Up 48¢ 84¢ $17 $29 +$13 (+75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Down 24¢ 16¢ $23 $16 −$7 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$33 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $71 +$15 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $45 −$10 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$13 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.67 · official $67.67 (match) · 462 history records