Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x606a…c264 crypto 265 markets active 18h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$268 (+0%) realized +$265 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%257W / 7L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$775per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$14
14 days+$22
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$262
politics 1% −$2
tech 1% +$1
sports 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 38 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 127 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 264 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$1,101) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×81.27 per $1 lost it wins $81.27
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$1,249
Realized+$265
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses257 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)264 / 265
History coverage210d
Avg bet$775
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,246 $1,249 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 15? Jun 15 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $378 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 15? Jun 15 $712 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 13? Jun 13 $643 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 13? Jun 13 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,235 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,234 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,233 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,231 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,232 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 7? Jun 07 $453 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 7? Jun 07 $313 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 7? Jun 07 $267 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 7? Jun 07 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,229 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,228 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,226 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,224 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,223 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $1,221 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,220 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 28? May 28 $1,216 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? May 27 $1,214 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 24? May 24 $322 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 24 $890 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? May 23 $1,210 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 22 $1,209 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 21 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 21? May 21 $1,029 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $1,206 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $1,204 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 11-17? May 18 $1,203 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 17? May 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on May 17? May 17 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 17? May 17 $305 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 17? May 17 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 17? May 17 $305 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.00 on May 17? May 17 $205 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 15? May 15 $1,199 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 14? May 14 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 14? May 14 $616 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 13? May 13 $625 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 13? May 13 $571 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on May 10? May 10 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 10? May 10 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 10? May 10 $420 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 10? May 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on May 10? May 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on May 10? May 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on May 9? May 09 $417 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,246 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $378 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $499 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $98 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $106 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $94 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $443 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $399 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $295 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $940 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,234 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,233 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,231 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $1,231 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,232 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $197 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $250 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $63 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $250 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $18 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $453 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,229 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $1,226 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $726 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $100 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,248.93 · official $1,248.93 (match) · 597 history records