Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x6068…28fd other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 386d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$123 (+8%) realized +$211 · open −$88
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate69%20W / 9L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$30
world 32% +$47
politics 13% +$39
sports 10% +$73
finance 5% +$17
culture 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +13.9% +3.1% 50% 50% +9.8%
≤30d 2 +13.9% +3.1% 50% 50% +9.8%
≤90d 8 -19.7% -27.4% 50% 50% -7.0%
all 29 +5.9% -4.2% 69% 52% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 52% +3.4%
10% -13.3% 45% -6.5%
15% -21.7% 21% -15.5%
20% -29.4% 14% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$211
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses20 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage386d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 36¢ 18¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-51%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 13¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-58%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 66¢ $55 $4 −$51 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $60 +$19 +32%
2026 Balance of Power: Other Jun 21 $25 −$1 -4%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $100 +$22 +22%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 07 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 04 $70 +$17 +24%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? Mar 29 $30 −$30 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 22 $60 +$3 +5%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 18 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? Mar 01 $40 −$4 -10%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $162 +$11 +7%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $27 +$23 +85%
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? Feb 28 $23 +$37 +163%
Will Alexander Isak sign with a new club during the transfer window? Sep 05 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-16? Aug 17 $34 +$16 +45%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? Aug 16 $53 +$17 +32%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? Aug 15 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Aug 15 $31 +$4 +12%
Another US military action against Iran before 2026? Aug 12 $27 −$8 -30%
Justin Bieber rehab in 2025? Aug 12 $22 −$11 -50%
Will Viktor Gyokeres sign with a new club during the transfer window? Aug 06 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Vitality win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament Jun 23 $50 +$14 +28%
Will the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-2? Jun 15 $62 +$18 +28%
Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday? Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Panthers vs. Oilers Jun 06 $75 +$67 +89%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 31 $20 −$16 -82%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? May 31 $20 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $79 1h
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL Yes $24 1h
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $55 56d
Kash Patel out by April 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 56d
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? BUY Yes $10 73d
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 73d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $60 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL Yes 93¢ $122 74d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 74d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? SELL No 59¢ $17 74d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 90d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $63 90d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 81¢ $70 94d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $60 94d
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 94d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 96d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? BUY No 35¢ $10 99d
2026 Balance of Power: Other BUY Yes $25 100d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 100d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? SELL No 72¢ $36 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 112d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? BUY No 80¢ $40 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $73 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 112d
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 113d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 113d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 113d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 113d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-16? BUY No 69¢ $34 309d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.51 · official $36.51 (match) · 163 history records