Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x6063…8f56 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$377 (+21%) realized +$383 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$835now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$304
30 days+$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$292
sports 23% +$73
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +93.6% +75.1% 100% 100% +66.1%
≤90d 10 +13.0% +2.3% 90% 30% +28.7%
all 15 +6.4% -3.8% 87% 20% +25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 20% +25.0%
10% -13.0% 20% +13.0%
15% -21.4% 20% +2.1%
20% -29.1% 13% -7.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$73 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.52 per $1 lost it wins $3.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$835
Realized+$383
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage178d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? No 73¢ 72¢ $841 $835 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $415 +$304 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $141 +$161 +114%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $126 +$52 +42%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 5? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 19 $13 $0 +1%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 18 $143 −$140 -98%
Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Feb 03 $18 −$7 -38%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft reach $645 in January? Jan 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will no one dissent the January Fed decision? Jan 31 $18 $0 +1%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 06 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $835.20 · official $835.20 (match) · 33 history records