Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x6062…dec2 world 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$925 (+8%) realized +$295 · open +$630
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$493per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$4,240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$270
14 days+$630
30 days+$630
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$805
politics 34% +$436
other 17% +$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +9.0% -1.4% 67% 67% +17.3%
≤30d 7 +8.1% -2.2% 71% 57% +2.4%
≤90d 16 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 44% +1.0%
all 16 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 44% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 44% +1.0%
10% -11.6% 19% -8.7%
15% -20.1% 6% -17.5%
20% -27.9% 6% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$21 · ×3.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.66 per $1 lost it wins $10.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$4,240
Realized+$295
Unrealized+$630
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)16 / 24
History coverage83d
Avg bet$493
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 86¢ 95¢ $1,000 $1,107 +$107 (+11%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $600 $717 +$117 (+20%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 79¢ 97¢ $500 $613 +$113 (+23%)
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $600 $612 +$12 (+2%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? No 64¢ 88¢ $400 $546 +$146 (+37%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 74¢ 99¢ $400 $535 +$135 (+34%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 21 $500 +$65 +13%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -38%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $400 +$209 +52%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 13 $503 +$89 +18%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 12 $500 +$70 +14%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 12 $2,503 +$245 +10%
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? Jun 12 $380 −$43 -11%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 15 $300 +$90 +30%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 03 $200 +$23 +12%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 24 $200 +$11 +6%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 21 $50 −$1 -3%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 19 $200 +$59 +29%
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17? Apr 14 $431 +$24 +6%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 10 $300 −$36 -12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 10 $300 +$7 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 10 $204 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 95¢ $500 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $214 2h
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $565 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $100 8h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 74¢ $100 4d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 77¢ $200 4d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 4d
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? BUY No 75¢ $100 5d
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 85¢ $200 5d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 5d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 79¢ $200 5d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 84¢ $200 5d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 79¢ $300 5d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 84¢ $300 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $55 6d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $200 7d
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? BUY No 46¢ $100 7d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $592 7d
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $300 8d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $400 8d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $200 8d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $200 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $200 8d
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY No 82¢ $200 8d
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? BUY No 75¢ $200 8d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $570 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,240.23 · official $4,240.23 (match) · 68 history records