Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6061…9fcc crypto 734 markets active 5d ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,222 (-24%) realized −$2,222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%350W / 383L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$872
14 days−$769
30 days−$769
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$1,648
other 5% −$79
sports 1% −$82
world 1% −$5
tech 0% −$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -53.1% -57.5% 20% 18% -59.4%
≤30d 120 -30.8% -37.4% 38% 35% -47.9%
≤90d 733 -18.6% -26.3% 48% 40% -27.7%
all 733 -18.6% -26.3% 48% 40% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 40% -27.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 29% -34.7%
15% -39.8% 19% -41.0%
20% -45.7% 10% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2,222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses350 / 383
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)733 / 734
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 733 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$14 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $111 −$44 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $76 −$28 -37%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $81 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $44 −$42 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$19 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $47 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$15 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $42 −$3 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $39 −$5 -13%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 −$2 -8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$5 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $27 −$3 -12%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Jun 11 $31 −$9 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$4 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $37 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $28 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.07 · official $1.07 (match) · 3500 history records