Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x6061…0dcd other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+6%) realized +$63 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$118
14 days+$118
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$43
sports 39% −$5
crypto 6% +$22
world 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.7% -10.1% 52% 52% +9.1%
≤30d 23 -0.7% -10.1% 52% 52% +9.1%
≤90d 23 -0.7% -10.1% 52% 52% +9.1%
all 36 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 50% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 50% -5.3%
10% -22.8% 42% -14.3%
15% -30.2% 39% -22.6%
20% -37.1% 36% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)36 / 43
History coverage108d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 21¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 +$28 +93%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 +$58 +190%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +72%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$17 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Shohei Ohtani win MVP at the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela Mar 20 $10 +$5 +54%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 16 $60 −$60 -100%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea Mar 16 $105 −$3 -3%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea Mar 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea Mar 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Final Stage: Canada vs. USA Mar 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico Mar 16 $10 +$10 +96%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 16 $10 +$14 +144%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 12 $14 −$2 -16%
First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan Mar 07 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 21¢ $31 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 18h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 43h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 34¢ $31 43h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $31 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 27¢ $31 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 4d
Final Stage: Italy vs. Venezuela BUY Venezuela 65¢ $10 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.40 · official $325.40 (match) · 74 history records