Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:19:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6060…f91e world 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+3%) realized +$29 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate78%109W / 30L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$3
politics 14% +$12
other 13% +$4
tech 3% +$8
economics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 1% −$9
sports 1% +$9
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +6.1% -4.0% 80% 40% +16.1%
≤30d 20 +1.1% -8.5% 75% 15% -4.1%
≤90d 137 -0.1% -9.7% 78% 15% -7.1%
all 139 -0.0% -9.6% 78% 16% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 16% -7.2%
10% -18.2% 8% -16.1%
15% -26.1% 4% -24.2%
20% -33.4% 2% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses109 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions29
Markets (closed)139 / 168
History coverage95d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 99¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+134%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 66¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+14%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 87¢ 87¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 34¢ 34¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 96¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 95¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 96¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 47¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+110%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 64¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 89¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $16 +$6 +36%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $2 $0 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +2%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -41%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $11 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -19%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $4 $0 +2%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $1 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $1 $0 +7%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 18 $3 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $1 $0 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 15 $3 $0 +12%
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 15 $1 $0 +6%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $41 +$3 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 09 $3 +$1 +37%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $24 +$3 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $2 $0 +4%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 04 $3 −$1 -27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 04 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $63 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $1 $0 +6%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 01 $3 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 01 $6 $0 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $7 $0 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $10 −$2 -18%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $2 $0 +4%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $7 $0 +2%
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? Apr 30 $1 $0 +6%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $3 −$3 -91%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 35¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 34¢ $1 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $1 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $1 2h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $1 2h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 95¢ $1 2h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 95¢ $1 3h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $1 3h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 34¢ $1 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 3h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 34¢ $1 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $22 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $2 4d
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 93¢ $1 6d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 99¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1 7d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.82 · official $92.82 (match) · 845 history records