Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6060…eb3a crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-7%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 39% -5.2%
≤30d 23 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 39% -5.2%
≤90d 23 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 39% -5.2%
all 23 -7.3% -16.1% 52% 39% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 39% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 22% -14.3%
15% -31.5% 9% -22.6%
20% -38.2% 9% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.94 · official $8.72 · 42 history records