Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
60 0x6059…2800 crypto 430 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,226 (+13%) realized +$1,226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate63%266W / 159L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$201
14 days+$106
30 days+$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$383
crypto 37% +$101
sports 10% +$256
world 3% +$375
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +23.2% +11.5% 67% 58% +22.2%
≤30d 48 +5.2% -4.8% 58% 52% +4.9%
≤90d 425 -0.7% -10.2% 63% 51% +1.1%
all 425 -0.7% -10.2% 63% 51% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 51% +1.1%
10% -18.8% 43% -8.6%
15% -26.6% 33% -17.4%
20% -33.8% 26% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses266 / 159
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)425 / 430
History coverage84d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 425 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$35 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Scor Jun 23 $24 +$26 +108%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$10 +48%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $16 −$1 -5%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $25 −$14 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$13 +65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +12%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 +$20 +88%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$30 +145%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $61 +$22 +37%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$27 +134%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $28 +$29 +105%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $32 −$32 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $27 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$3 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $98 −$5 -5%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $102 −$13 -12%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $200 +$140 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 26 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 26 $62 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 20 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 2h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $10 16h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 67¢ $20 16h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Scor BUY 47¢ $24 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $15 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $19 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 18h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 19¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 19h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 20h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $4 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $19 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $14 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 910 history records