trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +7.3% | -3.0% | 67% | 33% | -9.2% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -40.7% | -46.4% | 29% | 14% | -18.0% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -40.7% | -46.4% | 29% | 14% | -18.0% |
| all | 7 | -40.7% | -46.4% | 29% | 14% | -18.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -46.4% | 14% | -18.0% |
| 10% | -51.5% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 15% | -56.2% | 0% | -33.0% |
| 20% | -60.5% | 0% | -39.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 90¢ | 99¢ | $225 | $249 | +$24 (+10%) |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 63¢ | 89¢ | $82 | $115 | +$33 (+41%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 20¢ | 18¢ | $29 | $26 | −$4 (-12%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 20¢ | 18¢ | $22 | $19 | −$3 (-12%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 77¢ | 77¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+0%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 90¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+171%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $26 | $0 | −$26 (-100%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $72 | $0 | −$72 (-100%) |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 09 | $874 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn | Jun 09 | $5 | +$1 | +18% |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Jun 09 | $88 | +$3 | +4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | May 31 | $64 | −$32 | -50% |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | May 30 | $4 | $0 | -7% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $157 | −$104 | -66% |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | May 25 | $6 | −$6 | -96% |