Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x6058…64dc economics 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy economics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$327 (-3%) realized −$327 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$712per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$123
14 days+$123
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 97% −$285
crypto 3% −$101
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +12.5% +1.7% 67% 67% -5.2%
≤30d 3 +12.5% +1.7% 67% 67% -5.2%
≤90d 5 -1.7% -11.1% 60% 40% -23.8%
all 15 +3.0% -6.8% 73% 47% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 47% -12.8%
10% -15.8% 20% -21.2%
15% -23.9% 7% -28.8%
20% -31.4% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$308 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$327
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage337d
Avg bet$712
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $1,763 −$21 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 18 $279 +$66 +24%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $522 +$78 +15%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $2,193 −$1,103 -50%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $1,150 +$50 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $1,204 +$134 +11%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 04 $992 +$208 +21%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $832 +$158 +19%
Fed rate cut by September meeting? Sep 26 $60 +$23 +38%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $688 +$56 +8%
Will MicroStrategy hold 630k+ BTC by August 31? Aug 14 $278 −$104 -37%
Will Bitcoin reach $123k August 11–17? Aug 13 $24 +$2 +10%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Aug 01 $200 +$47 +24%
Pump.fun buybacks $40M worth of $PUMP before September? Jul 31 $10 −$5 -45%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 31 $479 +$19 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 80¢ $1,267 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 81¢ $1,308 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 80¢ $475 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 42¢ $1,090 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 81¢ $23 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 81¢ $8 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 81¢ $8 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 81¢ $8 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 81¢ $8 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 81¢ $8 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 81¢ $8 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 81¢ $8 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 81¢ $8 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 81¢ $15 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 81¢ $8 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 80¢ $65 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 80¢ $101 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $14 89d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $441 89d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 87¢ $522 89d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $383 89d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $363 89d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $409 89d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $767 89d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $111 89d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,310 137d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 89¢ $34 164d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 164d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 164d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records