Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
60 0x6056…7c17 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$30 (+19%) realized +$31 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$24
sports 13% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -11.4% -19.8% 40% 33% +19.3%
≤30d 15 -11.4% -19.8% 40% 33% +19.3%
≤90d 15 -11.4% -19.8% 40% 33% +19.3%
all 15 -11.4% -19.8% 40% 33% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 33% +19.3%
10% -27.5% 33% +7.9%
15% -34.5% 33% -2.5%
20% -40.9% 27% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$31 +80%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +108%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$8 +259%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 202 BUY 7¢ $1 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $67 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 1¢ $1 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $11 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $24 20h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 29h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 10¢ $1 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 29h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.48 · official $62.48 · 37 history records