Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6055…25b8 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-13%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$10
other 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -26.3% -33.3% 36% 26% -29.1%
≤30d 47 -26.3% -33.3% 36% 26% -29.1%
≤90d 47 -26.3% -33.3% 36% 26% -29.1%
all 47 -26.3% -33.3% 36% 26% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 26% -29.1%
10% -39.7% 23% -35.9%
15% -45.5% 15% -42.1%
20% -50.9% 13% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$5 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records