Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
60 0x6054…6fb7 weather 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate76%32W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.5% -8.2% 83% 42% -7.1%
≤30d 42 -2.2% -11.5% 76% 45% -12.5%
≤90d 42 -2.2% -11.5% 76% 45% -12.5%
all 42 -2.2% -11.5% 76% 45% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 45% -12.5%
10% -20.0% 10% -20.9%
15% -27.7% 5% -28.5%
20% -34.8% 2% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses32 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage25d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? No 94¢ 94¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? No 89¢ 81¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 31? May 31 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 30? May 30 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? May 30 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 28? May 28 $2 +$1 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 28? May 27 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 27? May 27 $4 −$2 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 25? May 26 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on May 25? May 25 $3 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24? May 24 $3 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 24? May 24 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 23? May 23 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 24? May 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 22? May 22 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 22? May 22 $2 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $13 24h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL No 88¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? SELL No 4¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 89¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 10? BUY No 90¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 82¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? BUY No 90¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? BUY No 73¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 93¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? BUY No 85¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 6? BUY No 90¢ $3 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 5? BUY No 85¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 4? BUY No 91¢ $2 12d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? BUY No 70¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 2? BUY No 91¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 2? BUY No 87¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.17 · official $16.17 (match) · 84 history records