Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x604d…4608 other 514 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,008 (-11%) realized −$3,008 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%198W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$482
7 days+$482
14 days+$482
30 days−$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$3,479
sports 27% +$780
world 0% −$120
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +93.5% +75.1% 100% 100% +77.5%
≤30d 8 -51.6% -56.2% 25% 25% -31.7%
≤90d 82 -10.6% -19.2% 34% 34% -28.3%
all 514 -3.2% -12.5% 39% 38% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 38% -18.7%
10% -20.8% 37% -26.5%
15% -28.5% 35% -33.6%
20% -35.5% 32% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$52 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,008
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses198 / 316
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)514 / 514
History coverage179d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 514 Trades
no open positions (288 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $298 +$321 +108%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$161 +79%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 24 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $306 −$300 -98%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $349 −$343 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 13 $66 −$65 -98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? May 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Huracán end in a draw? May 13 $102 +$203 +199%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $102 +$155 +152%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $204 +$336 +165%
Will CA Belgrano vs. CA Unión end in a draw? May 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $101 +$63 +62%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 12 $136 −$133 -98%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 12 $51 +$141 +276%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 11 $61 +$139 +226%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club end in a draw? May 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $36 +$63 +176%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw? May 11 $66 +$114 +172%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $36 −$35 -98%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $288 +$194 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $93 +$53 +57%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? May 10 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $304 −$300 -99%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? May 10 $152 +$398 +262%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? May 09 $56 −$54 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $619 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $298 14h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $203 26h
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 24d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $306 24d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 28d
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 28d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 29d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 29d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 35d
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $153 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $305 35d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $44 35d
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $36 35d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 35d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $152 35d
Will Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $66 35d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 35d
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 36¢ $204 35d
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 35d
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Huracán end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 35d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $540 35d
Will CA Belgrano vs. CA Unión end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 36d
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 36d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 36d
Will CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $136 36d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 36d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 36d
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 36d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 773 history records