Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x604c…4483 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+11%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate77%20W / 6L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day95.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +9.6% -0.8% 77% 69% +1.0%
≤30d 26 +9.6% -0.8% 77% 69% +1.0%
≤90d 26 +9.6% -0.8% 77% 69% +1.0%
all 26 +9.6% -0.8% 77% 69% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.8% 69% +1.0%
10% ← realistic here -10.3% 46% -8.7%
15% -19.0% 31% -17.5%
20% -26.9% 23% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses20 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day95.0
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$6 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records