Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x6048…484f sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,501 (-23%) realized −$1,501 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$410per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,502
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +22.8% +11.1% 100% 100% +11.1%
≤30d 1 +22.8% +11.1% 100% 100% +11.1%
≤90d 1 +22.8% +11.1% 100% 100% +11.1%
all 15 -22.0% -29.5% 47% 47% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 47% -30.3%
10% -36.2% 47% -36.9%
15% -42.4% 40% -43.0%
20% -48.0% 40% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$458 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$1,501
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage106d
Avg bet$410
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $8 +$2 +23%
Islanders vs. Sharks Mar 07 $836 −$836 -100%
Canadiens vs. Kings Mar 07 $518 −$518 -100%
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets Mar 06 $759 +$701 +92%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Mar 06 $195 +$115 +59%
Hurricanes vs. Oilers Mar 06 $583 −$583 -100%
Canadiens vs. Ducks Mar 06 $555 −$555 -100%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 05 $752 +$423 +56%
Pelicans vs. Kings Mar 05 $330 −$330 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 04 $504 +$381 +75%
Golden Knights vs. Sabres Mar 04 $255 +$200 +79%
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers Mar 03 $405 +$345 +85%
Predators vs. Blue Jackets Mar 03 $229 −$229 -100%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 01 $242 −$242 -100%
Bucks vs. Bulls Mar 01 $375 −$375 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $12 1h
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 40¢ $8 35d
Islanders vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 44¢ $400 100d
Islanders vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 44¢ $436 100d
Canadiens vs. Kings BUY Kings 54¢ $518 100d
Hurricanes vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 48¢ $406 101d
Hurricanes vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 48¢ $7 101d
Hurricanes vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 48¢ $170 101d
Canadiens vs. Ducks BUY Canadiens 50¢ $211 101d
Canadiens vs. Ducks BUY Canadiens 50¢ $344 101d
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 52¢ $642 102d
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 52¢ $117 102d
Lakers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 63¢ $139 102d
Lakers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 63¢ $56 102d
Pelicans vs. Kings BUY Kings 39¢ $267 102d
Pelicans vs. Kings BUY Kings 39¢ $62 102d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Thunder 64¢ $454 103d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Thunder 64¢ $298 103d
Golden Knights vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 56¢ $255 104d
Predators vs. Blue Jackets BUY Predators 44¢ $229 104d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Knicks 57¢ $74 104d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Knicks 57¢ $430 104d
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers BUY Blue Jackets 54¢ $405 105d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Pelicans 31¢ $129 106d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Pelicans 31¢ $113 106d
Bucks vs. Bulls BUY Bucks 60¢ $375 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.02 · official $12.02 (match) · 33 history records