Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:58:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
60 0x6047…0c12 other 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$50 (+0%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$16
politics 37% −$14
sports 6% +$78
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 91 -0.4% -9.9% 5% 3% -9.5%
all 101 +8.9% -1.5% 11% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 9% -9.4%
10% -10.9% 7% -18.1%
15% -19.5% 6% -26.0%
20% -27.4% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×12.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage115d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $307 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $277 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $238 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 05 $279 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $327 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $237 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $279 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $619 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $262 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $308 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $1,112 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $238 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $329 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $296 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $253 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $280 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 21 $297 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 20 $329 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $278 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $256 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $259 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $268 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $318 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $302 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $268 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $497 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $325 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 14 $336 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $287 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $261 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $308 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $337 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $261 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $275 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $236 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $335 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $335 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $307 25d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $307 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $332 30d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $332 32d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $299 39d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $299 44d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $277 44d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $277 45d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 46d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $238 46d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $279 46d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $279 46d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $327 47d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $327 47d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $271 47d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $271 48d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $237 48d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $237 48d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $293 48d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $293 48d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $279 48d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $279 48d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $306 48d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $306 49d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $294 49d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $295 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records