Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x6041…3326 sports 817 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,872 (+3%) realized +$2,874 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%409W / 402L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$882est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$246
7 days+$238
14 days+$1,693
30 days+$2,393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$878
other 6% +$336
crypto 1% +$52
world 0% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -13.6% -21.8% 56% 44% +9.3%
≤30d 122 -2.6% -11.9% 66% 57% -5.2%
≤90d 502 -13.9% -22.1% 47% 42% -8.8%
all 811 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 47% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 47% -8.2%
10% -20.8% 41% -17.0%
15% -28.4% 33% -25.0%
20% -35.5% 27% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$67 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$2,874
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses409 / 402
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$882
Open positions1
Markets (closed)811 / 817
History coverage150d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 811 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $51 −$46 -91%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $576 +$292 +51%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$19 -48%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 −$22 -44%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $182 +$58 +32%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $77 −$41 -53%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $46 +$7 +15%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $66 +$3 +5%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $60 +$7 +11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 13 $562 −$562 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $109 −$63 -57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,131 −$152 -13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $121 +$135 +112%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $101 +$19 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $73 +$29 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $123 +$65 +53%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,762 +$315 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,435 +$330 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$31 -76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $496 +$51 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $397 +$105 +26%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $38 +$19 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $228 +$38 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$35 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$6 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $32 +$65 +205%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $377 +$39 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $103 +$68 +66%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $253 +$153 +60%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $299 +$211 +70%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $2,384 +$1,438 +60%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $298 −$118 -40%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Jun 08 $987 −$978 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,912 +$464 +16%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,327 +$595 +26%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,211 +$269 +12%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,218 +$997 +45%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,416 −$1,244 -52%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $571 −$561 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $253 +$138 +54%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $2,103 −$770 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 6¢ $5 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 61¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $868 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $576 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AN BUY 2¢ $19 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY 4¢ $31 37h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND W BUY 4¢ $21 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 24¢ $10 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 44¢ $28 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 24¢ $11 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 44¢ $41 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $240 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $182 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 BUY 15¢ $36 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 30¢ $36 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $30 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $40 6d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner SELL Bebop 69¢ $52 6d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY Bebop 59¢ $16 6d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY Bebop 59¢ $30 6d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $70 6d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $66 6d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $67 6d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $60 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 39¢ $47 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN SELL 0¢ $0 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 34¢ $47 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 78¢ $109 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.11 · official $26.60 · 2156 history records