Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x603b…5339 sports 59 markets active 2d ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$313 (-1%) realized +$676 · open −$989
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate79%46W / 12L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$690per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$192est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$263
14 days−$130
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$559
world 22% −$1,090
other 1% +$17
politics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 50% -17.7%
≤30d 40 -6.8% -15.7% 75% 28% -9.1%
≤90d 58 -2.7% -11.9% 79% 33% -8.4%
all 58 -2.7% -11.9% 79% 33% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 33% -8.4%
10% -20.4% 10% -17.2%
15% -28.0% 2% -25.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$908) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$212 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$676
Unrealized−$989
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses46 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$192
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage35d
Avg bet$690
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 49¢ 1¢ $1,000 $11 −$989 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $2,840 −$271 -10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $80 +$9 +11%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $801 +$51 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $806 +$233 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $402 −$87 -22%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $103 −$51 -49%
Makarska: Simona Waltert vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 04 $300 +$15 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $705 +$72 +10%
Tyler: Murphy Cassone vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 04 $500 −$246 -49%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $902 +$60 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1,303 +$95 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $801 +$20 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $303 −$219 -72%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 02 $301 −$300 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $908 −$390 -43%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $1,003 +$34 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,500 +$28 +1%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $2,106 +$202 +10%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $1,806 +$239 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $1,499 +$186 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1,504 +$144 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $403 +$94 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $1,983 +$89 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $1,502 +$60 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,400 +$138 +10%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $1,205 +$200 +17%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $603 +$95 +16%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $300 +$11 +4%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $502 +$60 +12%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $202 +$69 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $940 +$30 +3%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud May 21 $901 +$18 +2%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $800 +$120 +15%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $292 −$209 -72%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $840 +$80 +10%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs Dynasty (BO3) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 19 $591 +$23 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $498 +$99 +20%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $934 −$642 -69%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $501 +$37 +7%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $402 +$70 +18%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $904 +$95 +10%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $100 +$4 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $123 +$39 +32%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $200 +$9 +4%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $301 +$29 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 14 $200 +$17 +9%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev May 14 $196 +$10 +5%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $111 −$63 -57%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $201 +$22 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $100 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $100 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $300 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $200 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $543 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $541 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 90¢ $80 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $1,000 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $300 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 74¢ $1,484 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $1,840 6d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $801 7d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 23¢ $31 10d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 77¢ $806 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 99¢ $300 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Jakub Mensik 3¢ $6 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Jakub Mensik 3¢ $6 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 23¢ $102 11d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 8¢ $52 11d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 15¢ $103 11d
Tyler: Murphy Cassone vs Yuta Shimizu SELL Yuta Shimizu 26¢ $57 12d
Tyler: Murphy Cassone vs Yuta Shimizu SELL Yuta Shimizu 29¢ $21 12d
Tyler: Murphy Cassone vs Yuta Shimizu SELL Yuta Shimizu 84¢ $79 12d
Tyler: Murphy Cassone vs Yuta Shimizu SELL Yuta Shimizu 77¢ $98 12d
Tyler: Murphy Cassone vs Yuta Shimizu BUY Yuta Shimizu 97¢ $500 12d
Makarska: Simona Waltert vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia BUY Andrea Lazaro Garcia 95¢ $300 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 88¢ $201 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 93¢ $301 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Maja Chwalinska 54¢ $227 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 47¢ $203 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.24 · official $11.24 (match) · 186 history records