Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x603b…c9c9 crypto 1332 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$133 (-0%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%1171W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$121
14 days−$340
30 days−$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -14.6% -22.8% 60% 1% -9.2%
≤30d 928 -2.9% -12.1% 86% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1332 -2.0% -11.3% 88% 0% -9.2%
all 1332 -2.0% -11.3% 88% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 0% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1171 / 161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1332 / 1332
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1332 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$29 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$4 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $46 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $10 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records