Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x6038…a421 crypto 309 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+1%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate72%221W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$25
14 days+$61
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.0% -14.9% 86% 43% -4.1%
≤30d 32 +7.5% -2.7% 88% 47% -4.6%
≤90d 106 +1.2% -8.5% 79% 30% -9.2%
all 309 +3.6% -6.3% 72% 49% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 49% -9.4%
10% -15.2% 37% -18.0%
15% -23.4% 27% -26.0%
20% -30.9% 16% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses221 / 88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)309 / 309
History coverage141d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 309 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $92 +$7 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $90 +$6 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $96 +$16 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $86 +$15 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$3 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $98 +$12 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $38 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $3 +$2 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $7 +$3 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $95 +$7 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $85 +$5 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 29 $8 +$2 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 29 $192 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $194 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $9 +$1 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 25 $201 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $190 +$9 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $179 +$11 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $8 +$2 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? May 17 $42 +$11 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 16 $26 −$2 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? May 12 $6 +$4 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 11 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? May 11 $17 −$16 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? May 09 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 08 $44 −$13 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 06 $205 +$14 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 05 $11 +$3 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $130 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4? May 04 $55 +$4 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 03 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? May 02 $106 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $99 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $37 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $13 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $41 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL No 9¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 30¢ $3 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL No 21¢ $2 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $7 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $112 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $86 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 71¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? SELL No 22¢ $2 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY No 70¢ $7 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 964 history records