Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6037…b4ee crypto 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$130 (+6%) realized +$171 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%91W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$46
14 days−$46
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$18
other 6% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +0.0% -9.5% 68% 50% -17.8%
≤30d 28 +18.7% +7.4% 68% 54% -4.1%
≤90d 167 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 47% -10.5%
all 167 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 47% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 47% -10.5%
10% -21.2% 37% -19.1%
15% -28.8% 25% -26.9%
20% -35.8% 18% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$171
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses91 / 76
Open positions1
Markets (closed)167 / 168
History coverage68d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 2¢ $45 $4 −$41 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $89 −$43 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $36 +$17 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $59 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $69 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$12 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$22 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $44 +$31 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$26 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$5 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 19 $6 −$5 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 12 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 08 $2 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 02 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 01 $16 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 01 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 01 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 01 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 01 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 01 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 01 $32 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 01 $17 +$8 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 01 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 01 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 01 $32 −$11 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 01 $5 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $46 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 39¢ $46 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $89 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $71 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $59 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $54 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $42 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.18 · official $10.87 · 529 history records