Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

60 0x6036…2447 other 5 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$576 (+34%) realized +$632 · open −$56

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$340per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$701now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+9.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+21.4%	+9.9%	75%	75%	+45.6%
≤30d	4	+21.4%	+9.9%	75%	75%	+45.6%
≤90d	4	+21.4%	+9.9%	75%	75%	+45.6%
all	4	+21.4%	+9.9%	75%	75%	+45.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.9%	75%	+45.6%
10%	-0.6%	75%	+31.7%
15%	-10.2%	75%	+19.0%
20%	-19.0%	50%	+7.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +61% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$193 vs −$10 · ×19.51 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×58.54 per $1 lost it wins $58.54

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$701

Realized+$632

Unrealized−$56

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$340

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	FURIA	75¢	69¢	$757	$701	−$56 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 18	$433	+$329	+76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$310	+$123	+40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$183	+$128	+70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY FURIA	75¢	$186	2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY FURIA	75¢	$577	2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	SELL Aurora Gaming	100¢	$762	2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Aurora Gaming	56¢	$433	7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$310	21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$310	21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$183	24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$10	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $701.47 · official $691.48 · 9 history records