Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:24:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6035…cc85 sports 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 673d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$701 (-18%) realized −$676 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%52W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$120
14 days−$120
30 days−$1,292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$73
other 28% −$382
crypto 16% −$186
politics 8% −$186
tech 1% −$8
finance 1% +$27
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.0% -22.2% 38% 38% -35.0%
≤30d 58 -59.8% -63.7% 21% 21% -71.2%
≤90d 63 -51.6% -56.2% 24% 24% -68.3%
all 118 -18.5% -26.3% 44% 35% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 35% -28.3%
10% -33.3% 29% -35.1%
15% -39.8% 25% -41.4%
20% -45.7% 21% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$26 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

673d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$676
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses52 / 66
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage673d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$75 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 +$55 +180%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$5 -10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $100 −$6 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $25 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $21 −$21 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $10 +$10 +100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 29 $8 +$3 +38%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Gay" during TPUSA events on April 17? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main May 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Hawks vs. Trail Blazers May 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Jazz vs. Mavericks May 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets May 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Gr May 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Bucks vs. Spurs May 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? May 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Magic May 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 29 $212 −$126 -60%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car May 29 $75 −$75 -100%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) May 29 $79 −$53 -66%
UFC 324: Figueiredo vs. Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? May 29 $155 −$134 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $25 2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $86 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 48¢ $45 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $31 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $100 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 30¢ $90 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $100 3d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 26¢ $5 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 31¢ $5 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 48¢ $5 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 57¢ $10 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 3¢ $1 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 24¢ $5 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 37¢ $5 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 53¢ $10 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta SELL Rafael Jodar 58¢ $20 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Rafael Jodar 28¢ $10 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda BUY Francisco Cerundolo 32¢ $5 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda BUY Francisco Cerundolo 42¢ $10 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka BUY Iva Jovic 45¢ $15 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul SELL Casper Ruud 87¢ $31 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Casper Ruud 33¢ $5 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Casper Ruud 47¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 280 history records