Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6032…0b5f sports 360 markets active 2h ago coverage 652d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%34W / 325L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$21
14 days−$38
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$13
politics 32% −$20
other 25% −$19
economics 4% −$5
crypto 4% −$10
culture 1% −$2
world 1% +$1
finance 1% −$3
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.8% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 72 -0.8% -10.3% 7% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 77 -0.8% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.2%
all 359 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

652d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses34 / 325
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)359 / 360
History coverage652d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $229 −$2 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $212 −$4 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $43 −$1 -2%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 16 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $142 −$2 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $195 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $207 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $244 −$2 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $64 −$3 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $52 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 09 $48 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 09 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $199 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 08 $45 −$2 -4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $86 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $163 −$2 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 05 $64 −$4 -7%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $139 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $92 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $53 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $130 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $65 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $50 2h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $50 10h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 90¢ $45 10h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $47 18h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $63 19h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $64 26h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $50 26h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $51 30h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 31h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 36h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 37h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $42 37h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 44h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $50 45h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $51 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 96¢ $45 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $61 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $61 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $51 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $51 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $54 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $54 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $50 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.64 · official $64.64 (match) · 1443 history records