Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
60 0x602e…20d8 crypto 235 markets active 9d ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$118 (-0%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%94W / 141L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$49
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,445
world 0% −$26
culture 0% −$10
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -13.8% -22.0% 56% 44% -34.2%
≤90d 169 -20.4% -28.0% 37% 34% -13.0%
all 235 -19.3% -27.0% 40% 36% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 36% -13.9%
10% -34.0% 31% -22.2%
15% -40.3% 23% -29.7%
20% -46.2% 20% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$73 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses94 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage104d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $53 +$58 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 02 $326 −$105 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 02 $127 +$50 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 26 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 26 $52 +$40 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 23 $13 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 23 $45 −$11 -24%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 22 $210 −$97 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 22 $222 −$25 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 22 $96 +$67 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 19 $317 −$111 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 19 $293 −$76 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 19 $132 +$96 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $9 −$4 -41%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 19 $35 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 18 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 18 $263 −$263 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 18 $313 +$58 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 18 $210 +$122 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 18 $121 +$43 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 18 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 18 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 13 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 12 $6 −$5 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 09 $79 −$79 -100%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 09 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 09 $34 +$46 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 09 $52 −$23 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 09 $140 −$56 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $111 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $57 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $136 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $125 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $96 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $87 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $105 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $75 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $72 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 941 history records