Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x602e…9516 crypto 182 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%177W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$12
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$31
other 2% +$1
finance 2% −$20
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.1%
≤30d 181 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.1%
≤90d 181 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.1%
all 181 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses177 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 98¢ 96¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $14 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 14h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $20 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.32 · official $14.32 (match) · 372 history records