Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6024…7a80 crypto 404 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-1%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%392W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$10
14 days−$50
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$89
other 7% −$5
finance 6% +$10
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 203 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 1% -10.3%
≤90d 404 -0.7% -10.2% 97% 0% -10.6%
all 404 -0.7% -10.2% 97% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$19 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses392 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)404 / 404
History coverage70d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 404 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $30 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
BNB Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 95¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $16 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $29 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $9 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 35h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 36h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.50 · official $154.00 (match) · 1939 history records