Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:12:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6023…037d other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$27 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate50%26W / 26L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$52
sports 30% −$53
politics 20% −$13
world 11% +$30
economics 6% −$1
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -7.7% -16.5% 75% 75% -9.1%
≤90d 8 -53.9% -58.2% 38% 38% -43.9%
all 52 -39.0% -44.8% 50% 37% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.8% 37% -7.6%
10% -50.1% 15% -16.4%
15% -54.9% 2% -24.5%
20% -59.3% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses26 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)52 / 56
History coverage620d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? No 86¢ 84¢ $86 $84 −$2 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 48¢ 38¢ $31 $25 −$7 (-21%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 +$15 +20%
Mavericks vs. Clippers Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 16 $9 +$2 +22%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 16 $27 +$8 +27%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Timberwolves Apr 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Apr 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Apr 07 $43 −$43 -100%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 22 $37 +$5 +13%
Celtics vs. Grizzlies Mar 22 $39 +$4 +10%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $28 +$4 +12%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 19 $32 +$9 +27%
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $39 +$6 +16%
Trail Blazers vs. Nets Mar 17 $19 +$4 +24%
76ers vs. Pistons Mar 17 $27 +$3 +12%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 17 $27 +$3 +10%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 13 $15 +$5 +37%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? Mar 13 $22 +$3 +15%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 13 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Mar 05 $22 +$5 +24%
Thunder vs. Bulls Mar 05 $25 +$6 +22%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 05 $32 +$9 +27%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $108 +$27 +25%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $9 −$5 -50%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 09 $120 −$20 -17%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 27? Dec 03 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $59 +$11 +19%
Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
$PENGU market cap (FDV) $1-2b one day after launch? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Global heat increase greater than 1.30°C for 2024? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Global heat increase between 1.22°C and 1.24°C for 2024? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
$PENGU market cap (FDV) $2-4b one day after launch? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
$PENGU market cap (FDV) <$1b one day after launch? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Global heat increase less than 1.22°C for 2024? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Base airdrop in 2024? Jun 27 $5 $0 +8%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 27 $93 +$18 +19%
Will Chris Christie win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Dec 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Dec 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electio Dec 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Republicans have 56 or more seats in Senate after election? Dec 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Dec 18 $0 $0 -100%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4 Dec 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Republicans have 50 seats in Senate after election? Dec 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Swell airdrop in 2024? Dec 18 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 86¢ $86 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $75 10d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 78¢ $27 48d
Mavericks vs. Clippers BUY Mavericks 17¢ $24 80d
Timberwolves vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 79¢ $8 96d
Timberwolves vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 79¢ $16 96d
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Michigan Wolverines 88¢ $37 97d
Celtics vs. Grizzlies BUY Celtics 91¢ $39 98d
Cavaliers vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 16¢ $43 99d
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-03-18? BUY No 86¢ $39 100d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-18? BUY No 89¢ $28 101d
Trail Blazers vs. Nets BUY Trail Blazers 81¢ $19 102d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY No 91¢ $27 103d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? BUY No 79¢ $32 105d
76ers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 89¢ $27 106d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 73¢ $15 109d
Magic vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 70¢ $16 111d
Mavericks vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 90¢ $25 112d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 112d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? BUY No 87¢ $22 113d
Thunder vs. Bulls BUY Thunder 82¢ $25 115d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $22 116d
Will Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $32 119d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 138d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 138d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes $2 144d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $108 159d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $5 159d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $25 199d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.10 · official $110.10 (match) · 259 history records