Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6023…7141 sports 769 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (215 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,101 (-12%) realized −$1,053 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%373W / 392L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day214.9pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,175
7 days−$1,534
14 days−$1,275
30 days−$1,275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$1,234
crypto 18% −$49
politics 2% −$25
other 2% −$15
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (215 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 720 -16.2% -24.2% 47% 37% -26.7%
≤30d 765 -12.5% -20.8% 49% 39% -22.9%
≤90d 765 -12.5% -20.8% 49% 39% -22.9%
all 765 -12.5% -20.8% 49% 39% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover214.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 39% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 36% -30.3%
15% -35.3% 24% -37.0%
20% -41.6% 20% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$1,053
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses373 / 392
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions4
Markets (closed)765 / 769
History coverage9d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day214.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 765 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 30¢ 48¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+58%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C MIBR Academy 12¢ 26¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+111%)
Will "Run It Back" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Finals? No 54¢ 45¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Clutchain 13¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Overwatch: ENTER FORCE.36 vs Please Not Hero Ban (BO3) - OCS Japan Sta Jun 16 $4 +$6 +150%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $68 −$67 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$55 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$10 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $8 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $4 +$6 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $82 −$5 -6%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $80 −$79 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Play Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Overwatch: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Jun 14 $1 +$2 +200%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections i Jun 14 $38 −$23 -61%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,008 −$502 -50%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 14 $1 +$2 +200%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 +4%
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $5 −$4 -90%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -23%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $9 −$1 -12%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 20¢ $1 0m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 20¢ $0 0m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 30¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 20m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 40¢ $2 20m
Overwatch: ENTER FORCE.36 vs Please Not Hero Ban (BO3) - OCS Japan Sta SELL ENTER FORCE.36 100¢ $10 32m
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 0¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 0¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 0¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 0¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 0¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 0¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 0¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 0¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 0¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 0¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 1¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 5¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.73 · official $15.73 (match) · 2642 history records