Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:18:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x601f…c5e6 politics 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,680 (+1%) realized +$1,681 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$1,297per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$179
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$72
other 44% +$1,839
economics 4% −$5
world 3% −$4
culture 2% −$5
sports 2% −$100
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 42 +3.0% -6.8% 14% 10% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -1.8% -11.2% 10% 6% -8.4%
all 100 -1.8% -11.2% 10% 6% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 6% -8.4%
10% -19.7% 6% -17.1%
15% -27.4% 5% -25.2%
20% -34.5% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,547) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$5 · ×42.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.74 per $1 lost it wins $4.74
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized+$1,681
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1,297
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $418 $417 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $964 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $939 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $2,367 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,027 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,537 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1,367 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $6,608 −$7 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,762 −$4 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,564 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,476 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $231 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $561 +$1 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,710 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $1,822 −$2 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $3,117 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,032 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $87 +$24 +27%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $972 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,150 −$2 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $56 +$55 +97%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $1,109 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $56 +$93 +165%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $37 +$15 +40%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $2,741 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $3,709 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $1,325 −$2 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,803 −$4 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $2,674 −$4 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 07 $1,212 +$1,896 +156%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $1,196 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $888 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $889 2h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $886 23h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $887 26h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $962 44h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $964 45h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $938 45h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $939 2d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,016 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $418 3d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,017 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,258 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,260 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,337 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,339 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,025 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,027 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,228 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,230 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,366 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,367 8d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,244 8d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,245 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,440 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,442 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,486 11d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,488 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,458 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,461 12d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 51¢ $82 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.98 · official $416.98 (match) · 297 history records