Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T00:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x601d…0c5d crypto 77 markets active 19d ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate87%67W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$4
crypto 37% −$10
world 9% $0
economics 3% −$2
politics 3% $0
tech 0% −$1
sports 0% +$6
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -16.6% -24.5% 83% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 31 -9.6% -18.2% 90% 0% -9.8%
all 77 -8.8% -17.5% 87% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 1% -9.8%
10% -25.4% 1% -18.4%
15% -32.6% 1% -26.3%
20% -39.2% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses67 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage258d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 29 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will Ye said be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 5? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? May 15 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? May 10 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 05 $5 −$4 -95%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in April 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? May 05 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 23 $105 $0 +0%
Will TurboTax: File Your Tax Return be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Apri Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 7? Apr 12 $107 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will MyTSA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? Mar 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 31 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 28? Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 27 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 24? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? Mar 23 $115 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 13? Mar 17 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 8? Mar 13 $115 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Mar 08 $117 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? Feb 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? Feb 11 $117 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 03 $117 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $117 $0 +0%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 21, 2026? Jan 26 $117 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $117 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 17 $116 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? Jan 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $67 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $101 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 28d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 31d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 49d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 54d
Will Ye said be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $1 54d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $1 54d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 66d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 66d
Will Elon Musk post 1520-1559 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 66d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 72d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 72d
Will TurboTax: File Your Tax Return be #1 Free App in the US Apple App BUY No 99¢ $1 72d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 77d
Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont BUY No 100¢ $1 77d
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Apri BUY No 100¢ $1 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 83d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 89d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 93d
Will MyTSA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $1 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 28? BUY No 0¢ $4 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records