Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x601d…24df crypto 223 markets active 6h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+4%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%109W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$8
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$11
weather 18% −$9
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 +2.9% -6.9% 53% 53% -6.2%
≤30d 223 +0.8% -8.8% 49% 48% -8.8%
≤90d 223 +0.8% -8.8% 49% 48% -8.8%
all 223 +0.8% -8.8% 49% 48% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 48% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 44% -17.5%
15% -25.5% 40% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 35% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses109 / 114
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)223 / 223
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 223 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 447 history records